"Maintaining price stability over the medium term is our guiding principle"
Analisei o comunicado do ECB (Banco Central Europeu) das ultimas 5 reuniões para tentar entender melhor os próximos passos na zona do euro. Em fevereiro, os dados de inflação já mostravam alta e o Council anunciou que “very close monitoring is warranted”. Em março as expectativas continuaram mostrando deterioração variando entre 2% e 2,6% para 2011. O ECB mudou o tom e anunciou que “Strong vigilance is warranted”.
Em abril, veio a alta de 0,25% declarando que “our decision will contribute to keeping inflation expectations in the euro area firmly anchored”. No mesmo pronunciamento baixaram o tom para “We will continue to monitor very closely”. Na reunião seguinte em maio, continuaram identificando pressão de alta, principalmente nas commodities e energia. Declararam que as expectativas “must remain firmly anchored”. Não mudaram o tom e mantiveram a expressão “we will continue to monitor very closely”. Reforçaram ainda que a estabilidade de preços no médio prazo é seu principal principio: “Maintaining price stability over the medium term is our guiding principle, which we apply when assessing new information, forming our judgements and deciding on any further adjustment of the accommodative stance of monetary policy.”
A reunião de junho chegou e o mercado esperava uma sinalização contundente de alta de 0,25% para Julho. Embora o Council não tenha sido tão explicito quanto esperado pelo mercado, o tom do comunicado foi duro e deixou as portas abertas para uma elevação de 0,25% na próxima reunião. O mesmo tom utilizado em março, antes do aumento dos juros em abril, voltou a constar do comunicado do ECB: “strong vigilance is warranted”. Além disto a expectativa de inflação para 2011 subiu para um range entre 2.5% e 2.7%. Para 2012, quase nenhuma alteração. Adicionalmente, o ECB declarou que os dados desde a reunião de maio quando optaram por aguardar a evolução dos dados antes de uma nova alta “confirms continued upward pressure on overall inflation ... On balance, risks to the outlook for price stability are on the upside”. Por fim, as duas expressões seguintes sinalizam que a autoridade monetária está firmemente comprometida com a ancoragem das expectativas de inflação: “We will do all that is needed to prevent recent price developments giving rise to broad-based inflationary pressures. We remain strongly determined to secure a firm anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area”.
Baseado nestas informações, no firme compromisso do ECB com a inflação, na continuidade da política monetária do FED em manter USD fraco (ampla liquidez e juros baixos) e, consequentemente, sustentação nos preços das commodities, minha opinião é que há uma grande possibilidade de elevação de juros na Europa na reunião de Julho. Se o ECB optar por aguardar mais uma reunião em virtude de melhora marginal no cenário e os preços das commodities e de energia não mostrarem sinal de queda, o Council não terá alternativas exceto a elevação dos juros em algum momento do segundo semestre.
A queda recente do EUR não altera meu call de que a moeda única européia seguirá mais forte que o USD no curto prazo.
Frankfurt am Main, 3 February 2011
To sum up, the current key ECB interest rates still remain appropriate. We therefore decided to leave them unchanged. Taking into account all the new information and analyses which have become available since our meeting on 13 January 2011, we continue to see evidence of short-term upward pressure on overall inflation, mainly owing to energy and commodity prices. This has not so far affected our assessment that price developments will remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. At the same time, very close monitoring is warranted. Recent economic data confirm the positive underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area, while uncertainty remains elevated. A cross-check of the outcome of our economic analysis with that of the monetary analysis indicates that inflationary pressures over the medium to long term should remain contained. Inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. The continued firm anchoring of inflation expectations is of the essence.
Frankfurt am Main, 3 March 2011
The March 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 2.0% and 2.6% for 2011 and between 1.0% and 2.4% for 2012. In comparison with the December 2010 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the ranges for HICP inflation have been shifted upwards.
To sum up, the Governing Council decided to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The information which has become available since our meeting on 3 February 2011 indicates a rise in inflation, largely reflecting higher commodity prices. The economic analysis indicates that risks to the outlook for price developments are on the upside, while the cross-check with the monetary analysis indicates that the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains moderate. Recent economic data confirm that the underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area remains positive; however, uncertainty remains elevated. The current very accommodative stance of monetary policy lends considerable support to economic activity. It is essential that the recent rise in inflation does not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures over the medium term. Strong vigilance is warranted with a view to containing upside risks to price stability. Overall, the Governing Council remains prepared to act in a firm and timely manner to ensure that upside risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialise. The continued firm anchoring of inflation expectations is of the essence.
Frankfurt am Main, 7 April 2011
To sum up, the Governing Council decided to increase the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. The adjustment of the current very accommodative monetary policy stance is warranted in the light of upside risks to price stability that we have identified in our economic analysis. A cross-check with the signals from our monetary analysis indicates that while the underlying pace of monetary expansion is still moderate, monetary liquidity remains ample and may facilitate the accommodation of price pressures. All in all, it is essential that the recent price developments do not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures over the medium term. Our decision will contribute to keeping inflation expectations in the euro area firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to contribute to economic growth in the euro area. At the same time, interest rates across the entire maturity spectrum remain low. Thus, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and thereby continues to lend considerable support to economic activity and job creation. Recent economic data confirm that the underlying momentum of economic activity continues to be positive, with uncertainty remaining elevated. We will continue to monitor very closely all developments with respect to upside risks to price stability.
Helsinki, 5 May 2011
To sum up, based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged following the 25-basis point increase on 7 April 2011. The information that has become available since then confirms our assessment that an adjustment of the very accommodative monetary policy stance was warranted. We continue to see upward pressure on overall inflation, mainly owing to energy and commodity prices. A cross-check with the signals coming from our monetary analysis indicates that, while the underlying pace of monetary expansion is still moderate, monetary liquidity remains ample and may facilitate the accommodation of price pressures. Furthermore, recent economic data confirm the positive underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area, with uncertainty continuing to be elevated. All in all, it is essential that recent price developments do not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures. Inflation expectations in the euro area must remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make an ongoing contribution towards supporting economic growth and job creation in the euro area. With interest rates across the entire maturity spectrum remaining low and the monetary policy stance still accommodative, we will continue to monitor very closely all developments with respect to upside risks to price stability. Maintaining price stability over the medium term is our guiding principle, which we apply when assessing new information, forming our judgements and deciding on any further adjustment of the accommodative stance of monetary policy.
Frankfurt am Main, 9 June 2011
The June 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 2.5% and 2.7% for 2011 and between 1.1% and 2.3% for 2012. In comparison with the March 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the range for HICP inflation in 2011 has been revised upwards, largely reflecting higher energy prices. The projection range for 2012 has narrowed somewhat.
To sum up, based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The information that has become available since our meeting on 5 May 2011 confirms continued upward pressure on overall inflation, mainly owing to energy and commodity prices. A cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with that of the monetary analysis indicates that the underlying pace of monetary expansion is gradually recovering. Monetary liquidity remains ample, with the potential to accommodate price pressures in the euro area. Furthermore, the most recent data confirm the positive underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area, while uncertainty remains elevated. Overall, our monetary policy stance remains accommodative, lending support to economic activity. On balance, risks to the outlook for price stability are on the upside. Accordingly, strong vigilance is warranted. On the basis of our assessment, we will act in a firm and timely manner. We will do all that is needed to prevent recent price developments giving rise to broad-based inflationary pressures. We remain strongly determined to secure a firm anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. This is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make an ongoing contribution towards supporting growth and job creation in the euro area.
Analisei o comunicado do ECB (Banco Central Europeu) das ultimas 5 reuniões para tentar entender melhor os próximos passos na zona do euro. Em fevereiro, os dados de inflação já mostravam alta e o Council anunciou que “very close monitoring is warranted”. Em março as expectativas continuaram mostrando deterioração variando entre 2% e 2,6% para 2011. O ECB mudou o tom e anunciou que “Strong vigilance is warranted”.
Em abril, veio a alta de 0,25% declarando que “our decision will contribute to keeping inflation expectations in the euro area firmly anchored”. No mesmo pronunciamento baixaram o tom para “We will continue to monitor very closely”. Na reunião seguinte em maio, continuaram identificando pressão de alta, principalmente nas commodities e energia. Declararam que as expectativas “must remain firmly anchored”. Não mudaram o tom e mantiveram a expressão “we will continue to monitor very closely”. Reforçaram ainda que a estabilidade de preços no médio prazo é seu principal principio: “Maintaining price stability over the medium term is our guiding principle, which we apply when assessing new information, forming our judgements and deciding on any further adjustment of the accommodative stance of monetary policy.”
A reunião de junho chegou e o mercado esperava uma sinalização contundente de alta de 0,25% para Julho. Embora o Council não tenha sido tão explicito quanto esperado pelo mercado, o tom do comunicado foi duro e deixou as portas abertas para uma elevação de 0,25% na próxima reunião. O mesmo tom utilizado em março, antes do aumento dos juros em abril, voltou a constar do comunicado do ECB: “strong vigilance is warranted”. Além disto a expectativa de inflação para 2011 subiu para um range entre 2.5% e 2.7%. Para 2012, quase nenhuma alteração. Adicionalmente, o ECB declarou que os dados desde a reunião de maio quando optaram por aguardar a evolução dos dados antes de uma nova alta “confirms continued upward pressure on overall inflation ... On balance, risks to the outlook for price stability are on the upside”. Por fim, as duas expressões seguintes sinalizam que a autoridade monetária está firmemente comprometida com a ancoragem das expectativas de inflação: “We will do all that is needed to prevent recent price developments giving rise to broad-based inflationary pressures. We remain strongly determined to secure a firm anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area”.
Baseado nestas informações, no firme compromisso do ECB com a inflação, na continuidade da política monetária do FED em manter USD fraco (ampla liquidez e juros baixos) e, consequentemente, sustentação nos preços das commodities, minha opinião é que há uma grande possibilidade de elevação de juros na Europa na reunião de Julho. Se o ECB optar por aguardar mais uma reunião em virtude de melhora marginal no cenário e os preços das commodities e de energia não mostrarem sinal de queda, o Council não terá alternativas exceto a elevação dos juros em algum momento do segundo semestre.
A queda recente do EUR não altera meu call de que a moeda única européia seguirá mais forte que o USD no curto prazo.
Frankfurt am Main, 3 February 2011
To sum up, the current key ECB interest rates still remain appropriate. We therefore decided to leave them unchanged. Taking into account all the new information and analyses which have become available since our meeting on 13 January 2011, we continue to see evidence of short-term upward pressure on overall inflation, mainly owing to energy and commodity prices. This has not so far affected our assessment that price developments will remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. At the same time, very close monitoring is warranted. Recent economic data confirm the positive underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area, while uncertainty remains elevated. A cross-check of the outcome of our economic analysis with that of the monetary analysis indicates that inflationary pressures over the medium to long term should remain contained. Inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. The continued firm anchoring of inflation expectations is of the essence.
Frankfurt am Main, 3 March 2011
The March 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 2.0% and 2.6% for 2011 and between 1.0% and 2.4% for 2012. In comparison with the December 2010 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the ranges for HICP inflation have been shifted upwards.
To sum up, the Governing Council decided to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The information which has become available since our meeting on 3 February 2011 indicates a rise in inflation, largely reflecting higher commodity prices. The economic analysis indicates that risks to the outlook for price developments are on the upside, while the cross-check with the monetary analysis indicates that the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains moderate. Recent economic data confirm that the underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area remains positive; however, uncertainty remains elevated. The current very accommodative stance of monetary policy lends considerable support to economic activity. It is essential that the recent rise in inflation does not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures over the medium term. Strong vigilance is warranted with a view to containing upside risks to price stability. Overall, the Governing Council remains prepared to act in a firm and timely manner to ensure that upside risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialise. The continued firm anchoring of inflation expectations is of the essence.
Frankfurt am Main, 7 April 2011
To sum up, the Governing Council decided to increase the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. The adjustment of the current very accommodative monetary policy stance is warranted in the light of upside risks to price stability that we have identified in our economic analysis. A cross-check with the signals from our monetary analysis indicates that while the underlying pace of monetary expansion is still moderate, monetary liquidity remains ample and may facilitate the accommodation of price pressures. All in all, it is essential that the recent price developments do not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures over the medium term. Our decision will contribute to keeping inflation expectations in the euro area firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to contribute to economic growth in the euro area. At the same time, interest rates across the entire maturity spectrum remain low. Thus, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and thereby continues to lend considerable support to economic activity and job creation. Recent economic data confirm that the underlying momentum of economic activity continues to be positive, with uncertainty remaining elevated. We will continue to monitor very closely all developments with respect to upside risks to price stability.
Helsinki, 5 May 2011
To sum up, based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged following the 25-basis point increase on 7 April 2011. The information that has become available since then confirms our assessment that an adjustment of the very accommodative monetary policy stance was warranted. We continue to see upward pressure on overall inflation, mainly owing to energy and commodity prices. A cross-check with the signals coming from our monetary analysis indicates that, while the underlying pace of monetary expansion is still moderate, monetary liquidity remains ample and may facilitate the accommodation of price pressures. Furthermore, recent economic data confirm the positive underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area, with uncertainty continuing to be elevated. All in all, it is essential that recent price developments do not give rise to broad-based inflationary pressures. Inflation expectations in the euro area must remain firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make an ongoing contribution towards supporting economic growth and job creation in the euro area. With interest rates across the entire maturity spectrum remaining low and the monetary policy stance still accommodative, we will continue to monitor very closely all developments with respect to upside risks to price stability. Maintaining price stability over the medium term is our guiding principle, which we apply when assessing new information, forming our judgements and deciding on any further adjustment of the accommodative stance of monetary policy.
Frankfurt am Main, 9 June 2011
The June 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 2.5% and 2.7% for 2011 and between 1.1% and 2.3% for 2012. In comparison with the March 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the range for HICP inflation in 2011 has been revised upwards, largely reflecting higher energy prices. The projection range for 2012 has narrowed somewhat.
To sum up, based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The information that has become available since our meeting on 5 May 2011 confirms continued upward pressure on overall inflation, mainly owing to energy and commodity prices. A cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with that of the monetary analysis indicates that the underlying pace of monetary expansion is gradually recovering. Monetary liquidity remains ample, with the potential to accommodate price pressures in the euro area. Furthermore, the most recent data confirm the positive underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area, while uncertainty remains elevated. Overall, our monetary policy stance remains accommodative, lending support to economic activity. On balance, risks to the outlook for price stability are on the upside. Accordingly, strong vigilance is warranted. On the basis of our assessment, we will act in a firm and timely manner. We will do all that is needed to prevent recent price developments giving rise to broad-based inflationary pressures. We remain strongly determined to secure a firm anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. This is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make an ongoing contribution towards supporting growth and job creation in the euro area.
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